An Agent-based Method for Predicting Monthly Maximum & Minimum Quote Prices

نویسندگان

  • Helga Mazyar
  • Kaveh Mahdaviani
  • Saeed Majidi
  • H. Saraee
چکیده

In this paper a multi agent model for predicting monthly maximum and minimum quote prices has been proposed. This model is based on the training of Elman neural networks and using particle swarm optimization for obtaining the best parameters of the neural networks. Also one method for reducing the effects of overfitting problem is suggested. This method averages the outputs of an ensemble network, given noisy data as inout, to predict the final results.. Finally the results of using this model on a sample data set are presented and the effectiveness of this model is illustrated.

برای دانلود رایگان متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Investigating and predicting the hazardous effects of monthly Ferrin temperature on horticultural and agricultural products In the north bar of Iran (Golestan, Gilan and Mazandaran provinces)

Introduction Changes, although low in temperature, change the occurrence of extreme phenomena such as droughts, heavy rainfall and storms (Varshavian et al., 2011: 169). Reducing the daily temperature variation has led to a reduction in the frequency of occurrence of temperature minima, especially in winter (Schiffinger et al., 2003, p. 51-41). Material and method The purpose of the present ...

متن کامل

Modeling and prediction of time-series of monthly copper prices

One of the main tasks to analyze and design a mining system is predicting the behavior exhibited by prices in the future. In this paper, the applications of different prediction methods are evaluated in econometrics and financial management fields, such as ARIMA, TGARCH, and stochastic differential equations, for the time-series of monthly copper prices. Moreover, the performance of these metho...

متن کامل

Seasonality and Forecasting of Monthly Broiler Price in Iran

The objective of this study was to model seasonal behavior of broiler price in Iran that can be used to forecast the monthly broiler prices. In this context, the periodic autoregressive (PAR), the seasonal integrated models, and the Box-Jenkins (SARIMA) models were used as the primary nominates for the forecasting model. It was shown that the PAR (q) model could not be considered as an appropri...

متن کامل

Modeling feasibility and prediction of minimum and maximum temperature in Iran by bettitt and Holt-Winters methods

Air temperature is one of the most frequently used parameters in the assessment of climate change at global and regional scale. So researchers have tried to modeling and predicting it with different models. This study also aims to model and predict the country's monthly minimum and maximum temperature. Investigates of temporal temperature changes is done by Sen’s estimator and Pettit method and...

متن کامل

Development and Comparison of Methods Based on Grey and Fractal Models for Predicting Natural Gas Prices

Today there is consensus regarding the importance of predicting the price of energy carriers for economic development, including natural gas as a preferred energy source on environmental grounds. In this paper we analyze the nonlinear behavior of natural gas prices over time by use of the Grey Method (GM), Developed Grey Method (DGM), Fractal Discrete Grey Method (FDGM) and a compound Method II...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2007